Don't know anything of Streeting's policy ideas, but based on knowledge of what he's talked about previously and the groups he talks to, he's definitely on the right of the party. My fear would be that he takes the Starmer policies and tries to polish him. They aren't too far apart politically, and I can't see how a polished turd is much better than a tarnished turd.
The reasons n Burnham is so favoured is that he has a strong record of success in his current role and would, possibly, be more willing to make investments where necessary. Starmer is a decent man, but he's a woeful politician with a non-functional political antennae. Elected with a massive majority (albeit a very low vote share - the most disproportionate election result in history), he could really have made a difference.
Instead we got an absolute cluster fuck of shit policies in the vital first three months, most of which rolled back pretty quickly. Perhaps the thought was to get the bad news out early in the lifecycle of the parliament, but all he achieved was a record slump in approval ratings.
Streeting has a better public persona, but does he anything else to offer? Labour has actually done some good things so far, but its all been buried in shit. Blair had a similar majority and look what he achieved in the first year; the difference is that Blair knew he had a large enough majority to include left wingers in both the party and cabinet. As for Starmer, he goes for the purge. His last reshuffle actually brought in more MPs from the right of the party than previously, so he's terrified of any input from the centre and left.
As a result we have economic policies that are not much different from the Tories. The trains are being nationalised (although with so much football I've not really kept up; are the companies that own and lease out the trains also being done away with? or is it nationalisation of only the operating companies, in which case it's a half-arsed measure). The nationalisation of British Steel makes sense in the current geopolitical environment, and the Tories may have done the same (although Farage would let it go bust of course).
The biggest issue that is shared with the Tories is immigration of course. Interestingly, Labour lost only a sliver of support to Reform in the local elections, with most of the votes going to the Greens, so there's no votes to be had from ever more hardline policies. Reform's biggest vote gains came from those who previously did not vote; clearly the idiots have finally worked out that if enough of them vote they can make a difference, even in a shitty, FPTP quasi-democracy.
If Streeting stands I'm far from certain that I'd vote for him. A polished turd will not go on to restore Labour's poll position. I'm all for Burnham, but that route is currently blocked. If Streeting wins then I think it's curtains for Labour in the next election, Burnham would at least stand a chance, but Starmer blocking him from standing in the recent by-election has scuppered him. Although Labour lost to the Greens, with Burnham as the candidate they probably would have won.
As for Rayner, no. No chance with a recent tax scandal; it is expected of the Tories (although it did lead to the downfall of the chancellor who lasted ten minutes whose name I've forgotten), but Labour are held to higher standards. If it's a three-way fight then I suspect Starmer wins. Labour uses preferential voting for elections, and Streeting voters would seem more likely to have Starmer as second choice, as are Raynor voters, so Starmer would likely win on the second count. In the last ballot I went for Nandy first and Starmer second and didn't put a number against Rebecca Wrong Daly. Raynor may stand as the candidate of the left, but she wouldn't have my vote. I'm not sure I'd even vote given the three choices to be honest.
Tinkering at the edges will do nothing to address underlying issues in the economy. We need vast investment in infrastructure and there are no plans to do this. During COVID I said that we should have issued COVID bonds similar to the WWII bonds that were perpetual, paying small interest and gradually inflating away (Osborne paid the last of the WWII bonds in the 2010s).
In addition, the BoE needs to stop selling off the pile of bonds it accumulated following the 2008 crash through QE. We are the only major economy who is releasing this debt to the open market and it is costing the treasury enormously. This debt was issued and bought by the BoE when interest rates were historically low, and therefore the bond prices were high (inverse relationship between price and yield on bonds). As the BoE sells these bonds at far higher interest rates, they lose a lot of money as the price is far lower. Some calculations out these loses in the order of £50bn and counting.
These costs come out of the treasury and form part of the deficit. It also pulls cash from the economy and forces up interest rates. They should have been rolled over to perpetual bonds when rates were low; inflation would already have reduced their value by around 15-20% and at interest rates of around 1% you can only think we missed a massive opportunity to invest in crumbling infrastructure.
Anyway, maybe Streeting will prove a pleasant surprise.