Apocalyptic weather

The next week is glorious for us, temps varying from low to high 20s and nothing but sun. Going for a picnic Sunday afternoon.

Some unprecedented heat looks to be building over France. Current forecasts are showing 39 for next week; the current record for June is 37.6 set way back in 1947. 40 degrees is definitely possible, which would smash the previous earliest 40 degree day which was July 1st 2015.
The heat remains over France, and parts of Spain are forecast to reach the mid-40s by midweek.
The question is whether the hottest temperatures will reach the UK. Some forecasts are showing 38 for London next week which would easily break the 35.9 set during the 1976 heatwave. Not all forecasts go so high, but the record is definitely at threat.
The main uncertainty centres over how close the low pressure over the Atlantic pushing the hot air north gets to the UK.if it gets too close, the hottest air remains on the continent; if it sets up perfectly, then we get a direct hit.
The most likely outcome is a blend between the two where some hot air glances the SE and brings very hot weather to Sussex and Kent and perhaps London. In such a scenario, London would escape with around 36, whereas Nottingham would reach around 33. If the hottest air hits, then 38-9 is not out of the question for London with 35+ further north.
This is the last of the temperature records that 1976 still holds in London as all others have tumbled over the past 8 years in quick succession.A once in a hundred years event has happened three times this century, and I would give extremely short odds on this summer also exceeding 1976 for temperature.

Amber heat warning has now been extended north and includes Nottingham. Forecast highs down in these parts is 36 for Tuesday and Wednesday, currently showing as hotter than London which is unusual. Forecasts indicate that we will have 30+ temperatures through to next Saturday, so a 7 day run down here from tomorrow, and 4-5 days further north. The June 1976 record temperature has a probability of 90% of being beaten in the coming week.

40 degrees now forecast for down here on Wednesday. Will it happen? Maybe, maybe not, but the fact that forecasting models now show that 40 is possible in June in the UK is quite a serious development. Europe is the fastest warming continent, and temperatures that would have been fairly extreme in the Med thirty years ago are now possible, if highly unlikely, in the UK.

I’m fucking hot. It’s not much cooler with the bi folds open, and I’m just getting the added shit of flies.

Currently 34c and I’m about to make the daily 2 mile afternoon walk to the gelato shop with Señorita Mus - the locals who are mostly all asleep as it’s siesta time think were barking mad, but it’s become our thing over the years and I wouldn’t change it.

If I had one tip for today, buy some fans.

Just bought a couple...

I got 4 this morning from Screwfix so have that, Loaf.

50% chance of rain overnight - probably don't need to bother watering the garden this evening then. 50% chance of rain on Saturday, when I'm at the cricket - not worth packing anything waterproof, I'm sure it'll be fine.

Imagine the difference if Jim or JR had typed this

Temperatures of 42-45 are forecast over Brittany from Tuesday to Thursday, temperatures that wouldn't be out of place in Phoenix, Arizona at this time of year. For this to happen in June is quite crazy; one of the impacts is that France will dry out rapidly with flash drought conditions becoming established. Less moisture in the soil means that the sun uses less energy evaporating water, allowing more energy for heating the air.
With such conditions nearby, any air coming in from France will be hotter than average leading to risks of recurring heatwaves across the UK.
With 37-39, looking fairly probable for Wednesday and Thursday, the southern half of the UK will also see rapid drying, particularly from the north midlands southwards; again this will compound any further heat.

Will it kill the French before it kills us?

Met Office currently forecasting 40 in Southwell on Thursday.

BBC are only say 33 for Radcliffe.

Southwell downgraded to a balmy 38 now.