Forest v Villa

Didn't he become a father recently? Maybe he's not getting much sleep.

Anderson some way off his best, too. You really feel that if he wants to elevate himself to someone that people are still talking about years after he retires, he's got to improve his end product.

Ball retention in tight areas, strength, athleticism, anticipation and passing all fantastic. Set-piece delivery and shooting is still a long way off elite level. Likely he'll kick on next season with better players around him at a top-four club.

I suggest he uses his vast wealth to hire a night nanny for the next few weeks.

I think the opposite of momentum is Tricky.

After today Opta has us at a 10% chance of relegation. Wolves and Burnley are both 100%, Spurs 46%, West Ham 35%, and Leeds 8%.

Considering we are ahead of West Ham by one point and I don’t think their fixtures are that much harder, that seems very generous to us.

Any points tomorrow for Leeds will reduce their percentage, obviously.

This puts us one point up on my run-in predictions that had us safe. Everyone else is par with Leed needing to play and lose.

I suspect Opta have us taking 3 weeks next week against Burnley… IF we do then I’ll be much more confident, however this is Forest..

I'll tell you what, I like Vitor. Jury is still out on him as a manager - there are promising signs but it's too soon and the circumstances are too loaded for me to have a sensible view on his suitability - but he seems like a thoroughly nice man.

No they won’t, they base the predictions on their determined probability of each outcome.

Most likely they’ll have it somewhere around 50% home, 25% away, 25% draw, which means they’d “predict” us 1.75 points. That’s why the predictions swing so widely after each game at this stage.

You’ll be able to see it after tonight’s game. Leeds are currently predicted to finish on 41.84 points and tonight has home 61.7%, away 18.1%, draw 20.2%, so that’s 0.745 points from this game. Their predicted final points total will shift pretty closely to the difference between 0.745 and the points they get (hopefully none). It won’t be exact because there’ll also be an adjustment to how good their model thinks Leeds are and their future predictions will adjust accordingly.

I was pessimistic - 62.3% win, 20% draw, so that's 2.07 points. Will change after the Porto game, anyway.

Basically the %s are a load of crap. If the bookies were offering anywhere near that 9/1 odds, we'd all be cashing in our savings and slapping it down.

Just checked the bookies, odds are longer than I thought. For relegation, Spurs are 5/4, West Ham 7/4, Leeds 5/1, Forest 11/2. Forest and Leeds look good value there.

44.37 this morning. 41.84 + 3 - 0.745 = 44.095, so the uplift in their rating is worth just over 1/4 of a point (total) over the remaining six games.

It's very limited in what it takes account of. It's basically just an assessment of how good each team is (based on results and, probably, a bit of a xG) and, from that, how likely each result is.

If we beat Porto on Thursday, our relegation % will go down (because it'll improve our rating) even though most people would say it the extra games make us more likely to be relegated.