I think there are two things to hold onto here: one, most people's voting intentions were locked in before last night, and two, there's still a long way to go before election day. The Democrats' ground game is going to be critical here - just look at what Stacy Abrams did in Georgia four years ago. Trump's railroading of the RNC means that a lot of money that normally flows down to local candidates isn't doing and if the Dems can use their financial advantage to motivate young voters out based on abortion, student loan forgiveness, climate policy and all the other things that they're clearly on the right side of the argument for, I think the Dems can still win this. There's also another debate in September and if Biden can get his shit together and perform at that more like he did at the SOTN, last night will be largely forgotten.
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The mask is off the Supreme Court which, and this is deeply gallows, is good news for the Dems, because these are terrible decisions representing Republican ideology.
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Unfortunately Chevron is slightly too arcane for the average low info / low interest voter and will be presented as simply ensuring that meddling power mad governments can't overreach and thus drive up the prices of the goods you rely on. That's obviously an argument that can be easily debunked by anyone willing to exercise the slightest modicum of brainpower, but sadly that also rules out a significant proportion of the populace.
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It's cumulative though. If someone can laugh off Dobbs, then maybe Chevron will get them, or the homelessness one, or the Jan 6 rioter when Clarence Thomas is on the case.
No, I'm not optimistic, and Biden is such a poor candidate.
Fuck Newsome. Pritzker would be my preference, but he'd be Trump-fodder. -
Abortion (Dobbs?) is the only one with cut through.
But the age thing with Dems is mental. Why hasn't Sotomayer stood down?
I get the impression there's no potential candidate Dem, other than Biden, who has any name recognition and isn't widely hated.
I think it's Trump and project 2025, so prepare as you will for that.
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Newsome is tall and handsome and articulate. Pair him with Cory Booker and I think you have something. Is he ideal? Is anyone? I like Pritzker but he will get a torrent of fat jokes and that might be enough to distract from the actual issues.
Biden after last night I don't think will recover. His voice has gotten so much worse over 6 months. I know his brain works but the rest of him is frail and the idiots who haven't chosen a side will obviously have noticed.
Women always like tall men. This is how politics sometimes go in the United States. Sad but true.
Chicago: Looking ways to fight Gilead.
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Lots seem to just want that.
Biden is frail and backs Israel. Trump is a staggeringly awful human being and it's hard for neutrals to ignore all of the issues. Felonies plus everything else might be enough.I hope so.
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By all accounts Biden is on fine form at a speech in North Carolina today.
Ground game will win or lose this. Dems don't need to convert anyone, they just need to get people to go and vote.
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Watched by a tiny fraction of the people.
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Sure. And that tiny fraction were already voting for him. But I don't think he's in cognitive decline, I think he had an off night.
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I've no idea if that's the same thing I saw but it looked like some bizarre front of green screen cgi thing to me...
I also know fuck all anout mercan politics, generally speaking and have no desire to pretend otherwise but it seems to me America has a bit of a pickle of a choice if Biden remains on the Democrat ticket.
Who's the running mate? If Biden gets in for another spin, is seeing the four years out even likely?
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Die is cast though. Once the people have made their minds up, it's very hard to unmake it.
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He is not in Cognitive decline but he is in bodily decline and it is very noticeable. This was noticed by everyone watching. Not one Democrat who watched this could find anything positive to say about that performance. It was very damaging. If he was ill he should have let Kamala fill in and see if she is made of sterner stuff and if she fucked up then they could have said well she isn't Joe.
Trump is absolutely awful but the truth is he wiped the floor with Joe last night and that is something that should never happen.
Something needs to be addressed and that is the physical health of Joe Biden. Sad But True.
Chicago: Listening to Metallica.
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Why the fuck is a 78yr old going up against an 81 yr old? Ffs Bill Clinton finished his 2nd term 23yrs ago and he’s still younger than either of them.
It’s fucking weird that these 2 are the best on offer.
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If your boss spoke like that in a meeting or at a conference, I bet you'd start looking for your next job.
And he's running to be the boss of the western world.
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From the News thread..
Loads of people declare as undecided at this stage. More importantly, even more people likely haven’t decided whether to vote at all. The people who would not countenance voting for Trump aren’t going to change their mind about that because he’s still able to stand up and firehouse bullshit for 90 minutes… but they are less likely to go out and vote for Biden if they think he’s too knackered for the job.
Debates themselves don’t make all that much difference, but the ‘Biden is too old’ narrative has been impacting his support all along, and the debate supercharges it.
He’s still a decent bet to win because Trump is such a terrible candidate himself. But it shouldn’t even be close, MAGA cuntery needs to be soundly thrashed or it will continue to gain momentum.
