UP FOR THE CUP - Part II: Exeter Edition.

Surely the likeliest team for Fulham is the team that started against Brighton, which includes Danilo.

He still needs minutes. Play him in the 10 for the first half and then put the Dom on.

Simples.

Chicago: Energy utilizer.

It is an interesting, and very welcome, conundrum to have. Forest may not have a better chance to win the FA Cup for a while, considering that this is as good a group of players that we've had in 30 years. Factor in that the two sides you'd normally expect to have to beat at some point to be successful in the competition - Liverpool and Arsenal - are already out.

Losing tonight because we rested too many first-team players ahead of Fulham would be understandable in the circumstances, but still a real shame.

So you do want to see a first teamer somewhere near the match. Indeed, in the match.

A shame and a shock as the game is tomorrow.

[quote="@Simon"]
[quote="@chicago"]
He still needs minutes. Play him in the 10 for the first half and then put the Dom on.

Simples.

He just came back from a long injury. He needs to build up his fitness. Wood, CHO and MGW are fit but we cannot afford to lose them for long periods. Cho also has a groin injury that he is recovering from. He isn't out very long but it is recent. It's about building up fitness for those who haven't played much. I know you know this and are just being Pedantic but still....

Chicago: Fitness Recovery expert.

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Listening to the Exeter fan on Forest Focus, I learned that Ryan Woods, the ginger defensive midfielder who always played well against us for Brentford is now at Exeter. And checking, he's somehow only 31.

Ipswich at home, if we go through. We’re in the last six with Bournemouth and City, so you’d take it.

Donny v Palace is almost unwatchable due to constant drumming, I think from the Palace fans.

Mute the TV and put the Five Live commentary on. I had the radio on in the background during the first half and wasn't aware of any drumming.

Putting this here because I don't want to be guilty of hindsight.

At the moment, Exeter are 5/1 to progress and we are 20/1 to win the cup, with Exeter to play and then, potentially, Ipswich (33/1 to win the cup) at home in the next round.

But there's an interesting comparison because Bournemouth are 10/1 to win the cup and they are at home to Wolves (28/1) in the next round. 5-0 aside, Bournemouth are about as good as us and Ipswich are about as good as Wolves (probably a bit worse, as reflected in their odds to win the thing).

So, you'd think if we win tonight, it's likely our odds to win would drop quite a bit, let's say to 12/1.

So, stick £100 on Exeter to win tonight and £100 on Forest to win the cup; you are £500 up if we lose but can probably cash out for a healthy profit tomorrow if we win.

I'm doubtful that the cash-out option available tomorrow, if we beat Exeter tonight, will be positive enough to make a profit on the transaction overall. Our odds will shorten - but the cash-out offered will not reflect the same change. I think.

Exactly. This is the scenario we are discussing right?

Input:
Exeter to beat Forest, 5/1, £10 bet, potential win= £60
Forest to win the FA cup, 20/1, £10 bet, potential win = £210

Potential outcomes:
Exeter beat Forest, you are £50 up.
Forest beat Exeter, you are hoping the bookies are now already offering a cash-out of >£20 on a £10 bet to be in profit. Can't see that at all.

The cash out doesn't actually need to be offered by the bookies - I can go to betfair and lay the bet off. My break-even odds in that scenario are literally 18/1. There's no way they wouldn't drop way below that. (I could lay off £40 at 17/1 right now, albeit they'd charge me 5%, so it's not profitable.)

I didn't realise you were bringing another bookie and laying it off into the mix. Go for it. Let us know how it goes.