Twitchy arse time

Everton:

• Brighton (A)
• Man City (H)
• Wolves (A)
• Bournemouth (H)

Got to think that Everton get nothing from the next two. I reckon they've got 4 points left in them.

Leeds:

• Man City (A)
• Newcastle (H)
• West Ham (A)
• Spurs (H)

This is a tough run in. Between the teams they have left, the fact that everyone hates Leeds and would like to send them down, and them looking absolutely gutless under Gracia, I think they're in big trouble. I think they pick up 1 more point and go down with a whimper.

Leicester:

• Fulham (A)
• Liverpool (H)
• Newcastle (A)
• West Ham (H)

I don't think this is as tough a run in as it might initially seem. Fulham and Newcastle already have nothing to play for, West Ham will probably have nothing to play for by the last day of the season, and Liverpool are basketcases. Sadly I think they'll pick up at least 6 points.

Forest:

• Southampton (H)
• Chelsea (A)
• Arsenal (H)
• Palace (A)

What looked a couple of weeks ago to be the hardest run in left might turn out to be not so bad, especially if City have already won the league by the time Arsenal roll in. Based on the above predictions we need 5 points from these 4 games. I think we do it.

I can only see Newcastle trying even harder to ensure 3rd. No expectation they would let up when they are in this position.

But, right now, Leed and Everton look to be the best options for us escaping.

With those predictions we need 4.. you have Everton getting to 33 and Leed to 31.

If we beat Southampton I can see us pinching another point in any of the thee remaining games… but we might not even need that.

Southampton is a tough game though. We are better than them.. but it’s their last hope to stay in the fight so it’s everything to them.

Fucking hell.. if we don’t make it, that Brentford game will haunt me for a long time. We were so close.

You're right, I was thinking that Everton were tied with us on 30.

Is there any news on Danilo?

www.nottinghampost.com/sport/football/football-news/danilo-injury-update-emerges-after-8402134

*Premier League Brasil has reported that Danilo suffered a posterior muscle injury in his left thigh, and is expected to miss the next two games against Southampton (home) and Chelsea (away). *

But, let's face it, we won't really know until 7pm on Monday.

Edit: Not sure why the italicise button didn't work.

The way he went off, I'd be impressed if he played against this season. Fingers crossed though, he's been great recently.

Thought this was going to be a thread on the bug a few of us had last week!

OK, I've looked at the remaining games for the 4 teams contesting the last two relegation places (Southampton could still stay up but if they do, we are relegated and this is all moot) and here's what I've got:

Leicester: Draw at Fulham, Lose to Liverpool and Newcastle, then beat West Ham at home to finish on 34. They're safe.
Leed: Lose to Man City and Newcastle and draw at West Ham and home to Spurs to finish on 32. They're down.
Forest: Beat Southampton but lose the last three, finish on 33.
Everton: Lose at Brighton and home to Man City, draw at Wolves and beat Bournemouth on the last day to finish on 33 and stay ahead of Forest on goal difference.

The margin of error there is ridiculous - it's impossible to predict 16 results successfully, so plenty of scope for us to stay up. But at least it's a benchmark for me to measure against.

Just realised that on those results, we'd be 16th and 2 points clear going into the final day and still be relegated, so that seems plausible.

Yeah I can imagine that happening! Limp collapse at Palace in the sunshine.

Supercomputer says we're staying up.

www.nottinghampost.com/sport/football/football-news/nottingham-forest-premier-league-table-8405304

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Updated:

They're already 3 points ahead of where I predicted them to be. Obviously we have to still expect them to lose to City, but 4 points from Wolves and Bournemouth is very possible. I think today makes them likely safe.

Not seeing any reason to change this, and today's results will not have helped their mood at all. As expected they lost to City and it would be a surprise to see them get anything from Newcastle. West Ham are likely safe now and focusing on Europe, so it's possible Leeds could get a win there. I don't think they're picking anything else up though.

3 goals at Fulham flattered them because they got taken apart, and then Fulham stopped paying attention once the game was over. I think they have the quality to pick up points still but my prediction of 6 looks less likely with arguably their second easiest game resulting in a defeat. Downgrading them to 4 points from the remaining 9.

We know now that Arsenal will still have the title on the line at least mathematically when they come to the City Ground, but today's results mean that based on my predictions for the other three we would need 2 more point to stay safe - I have Everton on 36, Leicester on 34, Leeds on 33. 2 points from the remaining 3 games looks very tough but it is doable - it would be wonderful if we could just catch Chelsea on a Lampard day and pick up 3, but realistically I think we're going to the last day of the season and needing at least a point and probably all 3 at Selhurst Park.

Gulp.