The run in

Depends how many points they get from us.

If we get 5 more from our remaining 5 games and they get 7 from their remaining 4 games, it doesn't make a difference which games they come from.

I think Ingo's 7 was in response to Simon's query re the points from the next 3 games

So, going back to this. Luton have now been hammered in their hardest game and their second easiest. We've lost and draw our two middle games.

We have to expect Luton to beat Fulham and they ought to lose their two remaining away games - which would mean it hinges on Everton. Leaves us needing to avoid a stuffing and to get two points + whatever Luton get against Everton from our remaining games.

Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think Burnley are more of a threat to us than Luton and it may come down to that last day when we play them away.
That's assuming we don't lose at Sheff Utd before that.

Where are you seeing Burnley getting points before they play us? Newcastle at home is the most likely and a point would be a massive overachivement.

Newcastle's away form is terrible recently, I wouldn't be surprised if they got beat at Burnley.

Over the last 10 games, Burnley have 10 points to our 9, have scored the same number of goals and conceded more.

Burnley have taken two points off of the top half this season (recent draws at West Ham and Chelsea) in 17 attempts.

And we’re about to play Man City, so if you apply the same ‘last 10 games’ factor next Monday it might look even worse.

And yes, they have a shit record against top half teams, but then we have a terrible away record but it doesn’t seem to stop people from thinking we’ll win those last two away games.

Momentum counts at this time of the season. Burnley have a bit of it, we have none. If we get battered at the weekend and they get something against Newcastle - even a point, not impossible - then all they have to do is match our results right up until the last day of the season at which point we play each other.

My point is that Burnley have no more momentum than we do, and one of their wins was against Sheff Undead in a game that could have gone either way. We've been playing largely ok with some pretty fundamental holes and bad "luck".
Our away form is terrible, but my thinking is that it would look less bad if we had played Sheff or Burnley.

So yeah, I expect us to beat one of them.

I don't get this.

We'd be top of the league by now if it wasn't for VAR.

Do keep up.

I think this is where we differ (although I hope you’re right)

Ok, three from 18.

Our goal difference gives us an extra point on Burnley. If they lose to Tottenham (likely) and Newcastle (the same Newcastle who are shit away and beat Sheff U 8-0) and we somehow get a point from Sheff U and Chelsea, then they'd need to beat us about 7-0 to finish above us. This being Forest I suppose that isn't inconceivable...
Anyway, the Sheff U game is vital on Saturday. A win there and we'd be almost safe and Burnley will probably be out with it.
Luton are the bigger threat; they could easily take something from Everton whose season is effectively over.