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The next six games

Guru
20 Jan 2025
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    Mangetout
    Squad 2425 posts
    23 Feb 2025, 12:57 a.m. 23 Feb 2025, 12:57 a.m.
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    Looks like a draw to me, and I'll be smirking plenty if we get a point at least.

    Great set of results.

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    JimShady
    Squad 3846 posts
    23 Feb 2025, 7:43 a.m. 23 Feb 2025, 7:43 a.m.
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    I think my prediction we'd be out the top 5 by the end of February is now technically impossible (someone confirm?).

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    Simon
    Squad 6580 posts
    23 Feb 2025, 7:52 a.m. 23 Feb 2025, 7:52 a.m.
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    @JimShady has written:

    I think my prediction we'd be out the top 5 by the end of February is now technically impossible (someone confirm?).

    Yes. Although we could be 5th and 1 point ahead of 6th and 7th. (Although that would need Newcastle to win at Anfield, guaranteed top 4 if they don’t.)

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    Sean
    Squad 2031 posts
    23 Feb 2025, 9:14 a.m. 23 Feb 2025, 9:14 a.m.
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    @Mangetout has written:

    Looks like a draw to me, and I'll be smirking plenty

    Smirkin tabs like pet?

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    JimShady
    Squad 3846 posts
    23 Feb 2025, 6:06 p.m. 23 Feb 2025, 6:06 p.m.
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    @JimShady has written:
    @Ingo has written:
    @JimShady has written:

    My reasoning is that I think we've been found out a bit tactically and that it's going to be a very long way to the end of the season.

    Knowing our tactics is only half the battle though. We're going to break fast as fuck and overrun you dates back to at least the Mongolian empire but just because you know what the plan is it doesn't mean you have the personnel to conteract it. We are where we are because we can deliver the plan.

    That was working because we didn't concede goals though - which we have started to do. 12 in our last 6 games, including 2 against Southampton, 2 against Fulham, 5 against Bournemouth and 2 against Exeter (I know). My tactical comment was more about our defence than attack tbh. Teams have started to figure out how to score against us.

    16 goals conceded in our last 7 games. Way over 2 a game. No wonder we're not getting any results.

    I think half the problem is we're believing our own hype - that we can get results anywhere. So we go one down ... And instead of keeping it tight, we fly at people and try to equalise.

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    chicago
    Squad 2552 posts
    23 Feb 2025, 6:27 p.m. 23 Feb 2025, 6:27 p.m.
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    Would you prefer us to defend a goal deficit?

    Sometimes I wonder about you. And then my eyes bleed…

    Chicago: Football fan.

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    JimShady
    Squad 3846 posts
    23 Feb 2025, 6:36 p.m. 23 Feb 2025, 6:36 p.m.
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    @chicago has written:

    Would you prefer us to defend a goal deficit?

    Did you watch the analysis? We had something like 7 players on the edge of their area at 1-1, then they broke and we conceded the second. Watch this video. Even when we're attacking we've been so good in defence because we've normally got 6-7 players behind the ball. We abandoned that at 1-1. Why?

    youtu.be/E-ddhrrMfnY?si=wlL2gR4xosE6FRdg

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    Simon
    Squad 6580 posts
    12 Mar 2025, 9:57 a.m. 12 Mar 2025, 9:57 a.m.
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    So seven points from those 6 games, which seems pretty acceptable.

    But we have lost ground on almost everyone we're competing against - 4 points on Arsenal, 13 on Liverpool (albeit they've played two more games and we aren't really competing with those two), 5 on Chelsea, 2 on Newcastle, 2 on City, 5 on Brighton and 2 on Villa (they've played one more) but held steady against Bournemouth. (I'm ignoring Fulham and lower but even they've made up 2 points).

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    Psychobel
    Squad 902 posts
    12 Mar 2025, 9:37 p.m. 12 Mar 2025, 9:37 p.m.
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    However those teams weren't doing a next 6 games in that it was arguably our toughest series of the season. Or thereabouts.

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    Guru
    Squad 1361 posts
    12 Mar 2025, 10:06 p.m. 12 Mar 2025, 10:06 p.m.
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    Quite. I think 7/18 isn’t that bad. Our away performances were poor for 2.5/3 halves but the second half vs Newcastle and the last two home performances have been very good. So I’m going with “we have momentum”…(cue losing at Ipswich this weekend)

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    Simon
    Squad 6580 posts
    13 Mar 2025, 9:01 a.m. 13 Mar 2025, 9:01 a.m.
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    @Psychobel has written:

    However those teams weren't doing a next 6 games in that it was arguably our toughest series of the season. Or thereabouts.

    Oh, I know - it must have been a different thread where I said we should expect to finish higher than whereever we found ourselves after the Man City game as the difficulty clearly drops off. Not sure I still believe that but the logic makes sense.

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    tricky
    Board 7317 posts
    16 Mar 2025, 9:07 a.m. 16 Mar 2025, 9:07 a.m.
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    Nine games left, nine points ahead of eighth. We can write off teams below that point as not realistically catching us now.

    Counting off the teams that can keep us out of Europe. Looking less and less likely.

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    Simon
    Squad 6580 posts
    16 Mar 2025, 9:14 a.m. 16 Mar 2025, 9:14 a.m.
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    Apparently one more win for any of the English clubs in Europe gets the 5th champions league place.

    Mangetout, Loafer and BrettWilliams like this.

    favorite 3

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    Simon
    Squad 6580 posts
    7 Apr 2025, 8:40 a.m. 7 Apr 2025, 8:40 a.m.
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    @Simon has written:
    @Simon has written:

    So 26 points from 16 remaining games, win 7 draw 5 lose 4.

    After I wrote this, I ranked the remaining games for difficulty based on their points per game (split home and away) and put them in those slots. Because of course I was going to.

    The three we've played ranked 4th, 6th and 7th, which made my target LDD, so we are currently a point ahead.

    As it happens, the next three ranked 3rd, 5th and 8th, so LDD again.

    So half way through those sixteen games, currently running 3 points ahead. (Brighton, Fulham and ManCity were all down as draws.) Gets much harder to keep pace now as the only remaining games that I didn't have as targeted as wins were Spurs (D) and Chelsea (L).

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