The next six games

In a 38 game premier league, no team with 70 points has ever finished outside the top 5 and there's only been 3 times that they've finished outside the top 4.

So 26 points from 16 remaining games, win 7 draw 5 lose 4. Piece of piss.

You can’t just look at our next 6 in isolation: most of the clubs around us have some tricky games as well - they can’t all win all of them (not least because they’re playing each other).

Chelsea (4 behind):

25 Jan: City (a)
2 Feb: West Ham (h)
14 Feb: Brighton (a)
22 Feb: Villa (a)
26 Feb: Saints (h)
2 Mar: Leicester (h)

So 3 home games they’d expect to win, but 3 hard away games.

Man City (6 behind):

25 Jan: Chelsea (h)
2 Feb: Arsenal (a)
15 Feb: Newcastle (h)
23 Feb: Liverpool (h)
25 Feb: Spurs (a)
8 Mar: Forest (a)

Spurs apart, those are testing games, so we’ll see whether the revival that the press are claiming is real - yes, they’ve won 4 & drawn 2 in all comps since Boxing Day, but the draws were Dyche-era Everton at home & conceding 2 late goals at Brentford, & the wins Leicester (a), West Ham (h), Salford & Ipswich… so might not show anything much. Or might, of course.

Newcastle (6 behind):

25 Feb: Saints (a)
1 Feb: Fulham (h)
15 Feb: City (a)
23 Feb: Forest (h)
26 Feb: Liverpool (a)
8 Mar: West Ham (a)

You’d think they’ll beat West Ham & Saints, plus probs Fulham at their gaff (though Muff at the weekend…?); the other 3 aren’t easy

Muff (7 behind):

25 Jan: Forest (h)
1 Feb: Liverpool (a)
15 Feb: Saints (a)
22 Feb: Wolves (h)
25 Feb: Brighton (a)
8 March: Spurs (a)

They’ll beat Saints & Wolves, you’d think. Probably Spurs (though they might not be the same crap Spurs by early-March). The others…?

Villa (8 behind):

26 Jan: West Ham (a)
1 Feb: Wolves (a)
15 Feb: Ipswich (h)
22 Feb: Chelsea (h)
25 Feb: Palace (a)
8 Mar: Brentford (a)

On the face of it, the easiest set of 6 - but they do start 8 points behind us…

How definite is it that we'll get 5 Champions League places this year? If it's likely, I guess we'll get at least a couple of Thursday night slots for English clubs as well..?

I keep seeing 99%+. I think it would take a big collective collapse by Villa, Liverpool and Arsenal (they are currently all in the top 5 of the table) for it to only be 4.

My understanding of the others (I looked it up last week as it's now of interest), is one Europa league place for next in the league (5th or 6th) and one for the FA cup winner and one Europa conference place for the league cup winner. If the FA cup winner and/or league cup winner are already in a position that qualifies through the league, that place goes to the next in the league.

So, if there are 5 champions league places and anyone other than Spurs wins the league cup (assuming they finish top 6 - Newcastle might not, I suppose), the conference place goes to the 7th or 8th in the league (depending on who wins the FA cup).

So 7th would pretty much guarantee us some European football? Get the fuck in.

Is there still an issue that we can't be in the same competition as Olympiacos? If so, Marinakis Jr might be getting some of his inheritance earlier than expected.

One match at a time spunk monkeys. We still have to get the results and CHO being injured does hamper us a little bit. Also Citeh, Arsenal and ChelsUSA are going to be buying more players which cunts us up a little bit.

Hopefully they remain inconsistent and we remain steady. The Muff is probably our toughest test for a while and hopefully we get something from it.

After that we need to get our scrubs up to speed by having them go mental at Exeter.

Chicago: Cautious.

Edit: Tell a lie we have Bright-one before the F.A. Cup. With their cunty German manager.(who isn't Klopp).....

This works even less well than usual

Would you prefer Chelsyank? or ChelsL.A.

Yeah makes more sense.

My apologies...

Chicago: Working on new lingo.

Throwing some forward looking excitement into my tracking against the previous two seasons (currently +21 against both).

Last season we got 4 points in the equivalent games (actually the same games as all six teams have been in the division for all three seasons) - win at Newcastle and draw at Bournemouth) and 22/23, we got 8 - wins at home to Brighton and Arsenal, draws at Bournemouth and at home to City.

So, no useful conclusions to be drawn there.

So…halfway through the six games. 3 points from 9. GD +1. We now have Newcastle away, Arse and Citeh at home. Others around us have a mixed bag. I think Bournemouth and Chelsea have the easier of the fixtures and we could easily get 0/9. So, worse case, I think we would still be top 7/8…

Newcastle seem a bit indifferent currently. Think we could beat Arsenal if we are on it. Not expecting anything from Man City.

I found myself thinking that this was a bellwether game. If we win, we'll get 1st or 2nd. Draw would be 3 or 4. Defeat means we'll end up 5th or 6th.
And all of that is incredibly good. Really.

Crazy talk.

I predicted in our WhatsApp group that we'd be out the top 5 by the end of February - it's looking likely.

Sure, after our difficult run, we could. And then, with slightly easier games, we could get back in. Who knows?