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THE END… (A match thread)

chicago
16 May 2024
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    Mangetout
    Squad 2425 posts
    20 May 2024, 8:27 a.m. 20 May 2024, 8:27 a.m.
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    @JimShady has written:

    [

    Joint. He got 15 with Burnley once. He could easily have had 20 with marginally better finishing over the last two months.

    More assists this season.

    Anyway, this doesn't look right:
    www.football365.com/news/feature-premier-league-keepers-ranked-2023-24-psxg
    I can't imagine a measure that shows Sels worse than every other keeper including our other two.

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    steve
    Squad 552 posts
    20 May 2024, 8:36 a.m. 20 May 2024, 8:36 a.m.
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    @Simon has written:

    But, rationally, right now the favourites for relegation are the three promoted team and us.

    And probably Brentford, who feel like they might (unsurprisingly really given how long and much they have been punching above their weight) be on a downward curve.

    If we could speak to our specialist coach and get a bit better at both defending and attacking set pieces we could improve our points tally.

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    Lessred
    Squad 2062 posts
    20 May 2024, 8:39 a.m. 20 May 2024, 8:39 a.m.
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    Maybe Everton too. I imagine they have to sell again and there is the possibility of administration

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    tricky
    Board 7321 posts
    20 May 2024, 8:42 a.m. 20 May 2024, 8:42 a.m.
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    Up is down. That's a 2+2=3.67549³⁷ sort of an answer. The only value in the analysis that produced that is in identifying how the derivation of some numbers can be totally misleading.

    Every shot kicked at the Greek that could go in, did. Both the others were clearly better shot stoppers. Not even close.

    Mangetout likes this.

    favorite 1

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    tricky
    Board 7321 posts
    20 May 2024, 8:43 a.m. 20 May 2024, 8:43 a.m.
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    @Lessred has written:

    Maybe us too. I imagine we have to sell again and there is the possibility of Toton.

    FTFY

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    Lessred
    Squad 2062 posts
    20 May 2024, 8:47 a.m. 20 May 2024, 8:47 a.m.
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    But, but, but, we were already in the list.

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    Simon
    Squad 6581 posts
    20 May 2024, 9:03 a.m. 20 May 2024, 9:03 a.m.
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    @steve has written:

    And probably Brentford, who feel like they might (unsurprisingly really given how long and much they have been punching above their weight) be on a downward curve.

    Indeed - 20 points worse than last year, appear to have missed out on cashing in on Toney in his prime

    @Lessred has written:

    Maybe Everton too. I imagine they have to sell again and there is the possibility of administration

    I think it's unlikely Bournemouth will get 20 goals out of Solanke next year and it'll be interesting to see what that does for them.

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    Simon
    Squad 6581 posts
    20 May 2024, 9:09 a.m. 20 May 2024, 9:09 a.m.
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    @Mangetout has written:

    Anyway, this doesn't look right:
    www.football365.com/news/feature-premier-league-keepers-ranked-2023-24-psxg
    I can't imagine a measure that shows Sels worse than every other keeper including our other two.

    That's not a per 90 measure, on which Vlachodimos would be way behind, but Sels has not, generally, been good at saving shots. Turner is better with his hands but he's so bad with the ball at his feet, it's ridiculously limiting on how the team can play.

    I said weeks ago, that, if we have the headroom, we should be looking to sell two and upgrading.

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    Ingo
    Squad 2646 posts
    20 May 2024, 9:26 a.m. 20 May 2024, 9:26 a.m.
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    "Forest really have made an utter mess of their goalkeeping situation this season."

    Well at least that makes 2 of us who think this.

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    Mangetout
    Squad 2425 posts
    20 May 2024, 9:56 a.m. 20 May 2024, 9:56 a.m.
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    @Ingo has written:

    "Forest really have made an utter mess of their goalkeeping situation this season."

    Well at least that makes 2 of us who think this.

    If the Sels stats are accurate then, well, yeah. Certainly we made an utter arse of the goalkeeper situation until January.

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    Simon
    Squad 6581 posts
    20 May 2024, 10:17 a.m. 20 May 2024, 10:17 a.m.
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    @Mangetout has written:
    @Ingo has written:

    "Forest really have made an utter mess of their goalkeeping situation this season."

    Well at least that makes 2 of us who think this.

    If the Sels stats are accurate then, well, yeah. Certainly we made an utter arse of the goalkeeper situation until January.

    At the most basic level, Turner conceded 28 in 17 games, Sels 27 from 16. Turner had 80 shots on target, Sels 61. (I'd argue we probably faced more shots with Turner in goal because he makes it harder to keep possession but he did have all those bad early away games.) The figures above are referring to post shot expected goals, which is basically the aggregate difficulty of the shots faced, Turner "should have" conceded 22.1, Sels 17.2.

    Mangetout likes this.

    favorite 1

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    Jim7
    Squad 1030 posts
    20 May 2024, 10:25 a.m. 20 May 2024, 10:25 a.m.
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    @Ingo has written:

    "Forest really have made an utter mess of their goalkeeping situation this season."

    Well at least that makes 2 of us who think this.

    3.
    If Sels is the answer you're asking the wrong question.
    He's just marginally better than the other two overall.

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    tricky
    Board 7321 posts
    20 May 2024, 10:34 a.m. 20 May 2024, 10:34 a.m.
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    We live in a world where Jordan Pickford is England's best goalkeeper. There is no perfect solution.

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    Seven
    Squad 1459 posts
    20 May 2024, 10:35 a.m. 20 May 2024, 10:35 a.m.
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    Sels has been absolutely fine. I’m not sure it’s worth spending the limited money here.

    jamesob, NorfolkRed, Brid and 1 other user like this.

    favorite 4

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    Mangetout
    Squad 2425 posts
    20 May 2024, 10:56 a.m. 20 May 2024, 10:56 a.m.
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    @Simon has written:

    At the most basic level, Turner conceded 28 in 17 games, Sels 27 from 16. Turner had 80 shots on target, Sels 61. (I'd argue we probably faced more shots with Turner in goal because he makes it harder to keep possession but he did have all those bad early away games.) The figures above are referring to post shot expected goals, which is basically the aggregate difficulty of the shots faced, Turner "should have" conceded 22.1, Sels 17.2.

    I get that (and thank you, you have clarified), but the reports and comments were pretty clear that he's in the "tolerable" ballpark, if not "thrilling". I certainly wouldn't have had him below Turner, even if Turner is the better shot-stopper.
    If the three goalies had managed close to a 0XG differential then this would have been a good season.

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    Simon
    Squad 6581 posts
    20 May 2024, 11:04 a.m. 20 May 2024, 11:04 a.m.
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    @Mangetout has written:

    If the three goalies had managed close to a 0XG differential then this would have been a good season.

    Quite - our aggregated PSxG was 47.2, compared to the 67 we actually conceded. That's the 4th best in the division.

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