I know everyone loves the comparison to the equivalent games last season and we are still exactly level on points on that basis. Have, over the course of the season, been 3 points higher (after ManU home and Brentford away) and 4 points lower (after Everton).
Was just thinking I'd be tempted to go with Niakhate and Omobamidele (or Felipe or even Boly) on Saturday to give us a left/right combination and one that's better able to compete for headers.
Also find it interesting that we are still 13/8 for relegation (Luton - evens, Burnley and Sheffield United - are you kidding?), which, I think, would still apply in the case of a points deduction.
Agreed that the bookies odds are a bit weird. They are surely taking into account likely points deductions. But despite that they still think it likely Luton, Blades and Burnley are going down? I'm not so sure.
They've also got us as more likely to go down than Everton - again - not so sure about that.
I don't see how you predict it at this point. Surely if we don't get a points deduction Everton get their 10 points back, which takes them clear and leaves us fighting it out with Luton and Palace. If we do get a points deduction that gives Luton some breathing room, but presumably Everton then probably get another points deduction, so we are fighting it out with them and depending how many points we both lose potentially Burnley and Blades too. Given that the clubs all seem spooked by the presence of actual meaningful penalties for PSR and now want to change the rules, it seems most likely they will go for removing points deductions while they reshape the rules to avoid the legal messiness of points deductions leading to relegation, but who knows?
Two points behind us with 10 deducted - with no further points deducted, on current points per game they finish with 36, we finish with 33. Given their appeal and both clubs' further charge, their position in comparison to us isn't likely to get worse and could easily get better (yes, they seem to have lost the initial impetus they got from the points deduction but that's potentially just form).
On the bigger picture, I'd say bookies have a small (or zero) points deduction priced in. If the expectation was 10 or more, there's no way we'd be ahead of Luton (they are also currently on target for 33).