HOWAY THE SPORTSWASHERS!

Two points behind us with 10 deducted - with no further points deducted, on current points per game they finish with 36, we finish with 33. Given their appeal and both clubs' further charge, their position in comparison to us isn't likely to get worse and could easily get better (yes, they seem to have lost the initial impetus they got from the points deduction but that's potentially just form).

On the bigger picture, I'd say bookies have a small (or zero) points deduction priced in. If the expectation was 10 or more, there's no way we'd be ahead of Luton (they are also currently on target for 33).

This presumes that they get a second points deduction of the same magnitude as us, but I don't think that's likely. I think they'll get a larger one.

I'm obviously plucking this out of thin air, but my best guess is:

Their 10 points gets reduced to 8.
They then get another 6 point penalty.
We get a 4 point penalty.

I have a feeling that the PL want to be seen to be doing something about financial misconduct (eye-roll in the direction of the big clubs), but they won't actually want to tarnish the league by relegating clubs after the end of the season using 'off field' matters. It loses them the relegation fight 'product' if everyone is actually waiting for a hearing to conclude after the end of the season.

My read is different. I think the way the other clubs have been spooked by the points deduction will mean that it would be regarded as unfair not to deduct points. If 18 clubs made difficult decisions last year in order to stay within the limits and avoid a points deduction (some more difficult than others, of course), why shouldn't we be punished for not doing so? (And, unfortunately, fines are irrelevant and there'd be no point in suspending a points deduction when the penalty for failing in future years would be another deduction anyway.)

Well yes, but it helps.

They've already been punished this season for 2 of the three seasons that they are in breach for. It all feels a bit double jeopardy and I'd be surprised/shocked if their total points deduction was more than double ours (you are saying 14 v 4, I think something like 10 v 5 is more likely).

I don't think so. If it worked like that, then there is no motivation to reign in your spending the following year. Broken the threshold? Well fuck it, go wild the next year, as you won't get charged again. It's a three-year rolling window.

(This situation has, of course, come about because the PL make some FFP rules then didn't seem to think through how they'd actually implement them in practice. That Everton could get two points deductions within the same season isn't fair. One should have been in last year).

That's what I mean. In principle, there's no issue with being punished for two consecutive breaches - if you were over the limit in the first cycle you have a year to fix the problem. But for Everton to be punished twice in the same season for, mostly, the same offence feels harsh and is why I think they'll end up with back to where they are now, so they've been punished for both cycles but it feels like only one.

Hmm. I see what you mean. Perhaps.

What a fucking mess.

This is why I think it's impossible to predict. If Forest and/or Everton are relegated as a direct result of a points deduction and then the rules are immediately changed to something less stringent it will create a legal mess, specially as the rules on points deductions aren't eve written down. And that's before you get into the added complication of whether the strength of punishment to either Forest or Everton relegates one ahead of the other. Plus I agree with your double jeopardy point on Everton being an added complication as to whether any further punishment for them should be in a different season.

I bet the PL are praying that Forest are Everton are both 5-6 points clear of relegation come the end of the season, so that they can eek out a small points deduction and have the problem (mostly) go away.

Best case (for Forest, anyway) is that the multiple moving parts means that they conclude they can get out of the issue by fining both clubs and warning over future conduct, giving Everton their points back and resetting in the summer. The clubs refused to define what the punishment should be when they decided on these rules, so I don't see how there can be any comeback if there are no points deductions.

I am of the same view as Tricky, 10 points deduction.

Assume Everton will end up with more, though not double.

Which means it is 3 from 4 to get relegated.

Everton judgment is here: resources.premierleague.com/premierleague/document/2023/11/17/49989e4e-01a2-44f9-a012-c3a31ae5536b/2023-11-17-Premier-League-v-Everton-FC-Decision-for-Publication.pdf

Interesting bit to me is the aggravating factors. (Section 16, para 101). Only one (potentially) - the size of the breach, applies to us - there’s no indication that we’ve mislead the PL about any of our intentions.

Interesting read.
There’s some desperation in those arguments from Everton. It’s all a bit upper sixth debating society (it’s not our fault it was covid / Gylfi / Putin etc etc)
Guilty as charged is my take on it.

It’ll be even more interesting to read what our arguments have been when it’s our turn for publication.

I think I’m more into the finance than the football come to think of it.

I'd be amazed if we get a 10 point deduction. Everton tried to hide the level of the breach and apparently carried on spending even when in discussions with the league.