Here is the News.

I’m pretty ambivalent on the issue, especially as everyone is very keen on by-elections when it’s someone they don’t like but keeps quiet when someone joins the party they support.

But when I didn’t vote for Jenrick, the ballot paper made it very clear he was representing the Conservative and Unionist party, so there clearly is an argument that he was elected on a basis that is no longer the case and, if he’s going to be representing a different party going forward, he should stand again.

It’s not the same as the party leader conversation, because my ballot paper didn’t mention Keir Starmer at all.

He would probably still win it if he did. His share of the vote is frightening, even though it went down a bit last time. It would probably go up again if he called a by election.

It went down 23% to 39%. So not a massive vote share.

15% reform explains where that went but I have no feel for what proportion of the tory vote are the types who would vote for anyone with a blue rosette. I don't think he's got a huge personal vote that he'd automatically take with him. Don't think there'd be much chance of labour or lib dems scraping through a split vote.

A big chunk of that went to Reform though. I guess it depends how many Tories are prepared to stick with him and who they put up against him. We had a strong Labour candidate and it felt like the best moment to beat him but despite a huge amount of energy in her campaign it still didn't cut through enough. No chance of it going Labour now.

Sorry, took too long replying.

I’m not suggesting he wouldn’t win, I think he probably would. But it would depend who the Tories selected……. Maybe a big hitter?

However I still wouldn’t put 39% as a huge vote share and it could be vulnerable very quickly in today’s politics.

Boris Johnson?

Do love a bit of speculation about a by-election that isn't going to happen anyway.

I always thought that by the election Reform and the Tories would have some sort of pact, but as more Tories defect it’s leaving bad blood and looks less and less likely. Reform won’t think the need them, but they might.

The defections can also only be a good thing for the left parties, it’s becoming very easy to suggest that Reform are rebadged Tories, the ones who made a mess of the country.

Labour would have to change leader but with the general election so far off there is time for them to sort things out. It would take a lot for them to win but they could really reduce their losses and play some part.

Similar point being made on Channel Four News just now, i.e. Reform's fairly successful USP has been 'anti-establishment' and yet they're steadily getting filled up with failed ex-Tories who are the very antithesis of that.

Firearm incident in central Southwell, apparently. Lots of police. Maybe it’s Jenrick.

Southwell's a bit of a sleepy yet full on soap drama town isn't it?

Land. Gun.

Surely only retards and the certifiable can believe that Reform would be better than the Tories.