GE 2024

What actually happens (I guess in theory if no actual precedent) if the Prime Minister isn't returned to Parliament but the their party win the majority to be re-elected to government ?

Prime minister is whoever can form a government that commands the confidence of the house so, as tricky says, Tories get to choose their new leader (presumably on a sped up process) who then becomes PM. I assume Rishi stays as PM while that’s going on, in the same way Brown continued as PM until the Tories and Lib Dem’s worked out their coalition.

Different circumstances, but RIshi is PM at the moment, without being an MP.

I'm not sure that's the case, but there is no precedent for this given it's never happened before. I believe that a PM has to be a member of either chamber in the House. In theory they could very quickly appoint him as a Lord to continue his leadership of the party and role as PM. However, it's a moot point as for Sunak to lose his seat would require a swing so great as to grant labour a very large majority.

Indeed. The running of the ministerial offices (if you can call recent years running) continues with ministers in situ until after the election and a new cabinet is appointed. Should anything arise during the campaign, ministers retain their power to make decisions.

Your loose understanding is correct. Council tax never fully covered the costs of running a council. The council tax rate is, in theory, based on the difference between the budget required to run council services and the amount received from central government with, again in theory, councils being allocated funds according to a formula used to measure deprivation, so those with the highest percentage of deprived wards receive more than those without, i.e. Wokingham receives the least per council taxpayer whereas Tower Hamlets receives much more.

I say in theory, because council tax rate rises have been capped for long periods, and the central government grants were cut drastically due to austerity policies, as well as some services provided locally but centrally funded (Adult social care being one example) being transferred to council responsibility without transferring the funding from central to local.

The result is councils increasingly shrinking to provide only legally required services and cutting or even ending other services. A political sleight of hand from the Tories, removing spend from the central government budget to councils allowing them to claim a lower deficit whilst claiming the councils are failing.

The banding of council tax has needed addressing for some decades, still being set at 1991 values, but no government dares to touch it in much the same way no government wants to see house price falls.

The betting scandal involving Tory candidates somehow guessing the correct date of the election is yet another signal of a dying government. Everything has turned to dust during the campaign with nothing seeming to improve the Tory vote share in polls. Of those who have decided, nothing the Tories do will change their mind. Postal votes will be landing in the next week and the number of trains undecided voters will fall at the same time.

I don't expect the final result to show Labour 17+ points ahead. The lead for Labour in 1997 was consistently higher in the polls than the final result (although it still delivered a landslide of course) and Starmer is nowhere near as popular as Blair was back then. Some polls showing the Tories on under 100 seats seem far fetched to me, and I suspect a result closer to that in 1997 is more realistic. Of course, the spanner in the works is the Reform Party leeching votes from the Tories, so although the overall Labour vote may be lower than forecast, there may not be much of a gain for the Tories, hence the low forecasts for Tory seats. We shall see.

Based on fuck all but a fuck the cunts attitude. I’m going for sub 100 Tory seats. 85. Based on nowt.

Fuck ‘em. 50.

I’m slightly annoyed as I will be away for this one. It could rival ‘97 in terms of seeing some of the big beasts topple.

More annoying is that I applied for a postal vote and have not received voting papers and I go away tonight. We are in one of those constituencies (Henley and Thame) which has been Tory forever (Heseltine, BoJo) but could fall to the LibDems. It’s pretty tight. I was going to lend my vote to the LibDems but looks like I can’t.

I've booked the 5th off work. I'm going to spend the night of the 4th getting shit-faced and enjoying every minute.

In previous elections Salisbury was one of those seats where it felt like they could put up a wheely bin in a blue rosette & it would win (some might say that the current MP, John Glen, is pretty much indistinguishable from a wheely bin). But this time it feels there’s a genuine prospect that he might get the boot. The city has had Lib Dem Councils & a Lab-Lib Dem one over the last 20 years, but the surrounding villages are chinless Tory central.

Glen is clearly worried, since this time he’s actually canvassing (I’ve never seen him anywhere near our street in 2 previous elections). This gave me the chance to give him an earful, in which the words “Boris Fucking Johnson”, “Truss”, “Brexit disaster” and “corrupt shit-show” all made an appearance.

My postal vote arrived yesterday. Mr Glen should not count on my support.

Yeah, we're heading off early on the Friday, so I'll see the exit poll but there's no way I can wait up til 3 when the excitement kicks off.

I’m far from being a Tory, but that’s crap, mate. We do not have a presidential system (thank God - can you imagine President Lettuce Liz?). You do not cast your vote for Sunak, Starmer or any leader (unless you happen to live in their constituency, of course); you cast it for a party in the hope that they will form a government.

When party leader changes mid-stream, I agree that a GE ought to follow on most occasions, though that isn’t the system & both main parties have made the same arguments when changing from Blair to Brown, May to Johnson to Truss to Sunak, or whatever. But in the (incredibly unlikely) scenario set out where a Sunak loses his seat but the Tories win, for once there would not be a lack of mandate.