I know everyone’s recruitment is great until it isn’t but I don’t think Brentford are there yet - they’ll have known Raya was likely to leave and would have had the new guy in mind for a while. Chelsea’s goalkeepers are both adequate, if not amazing, Leicester went mad after cashing in on Schmeical and thought they could rely on an obvious backup.
8 May 2023
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Brentford as the exception is a fair point. And Chelsea's keepers were not fit for the purpose they were bought for, and did not represent value. \
The Southamption keeper looks a decent shout, btw.
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The other side of that argument is that the Red Dogs want £60m for Sancho (overpriced apparently) who is also young, vastly more experienced and would probably slot right into most other prem starting lineups.
So £10m extra for that seems like a reasonable premium to me. Or Johnson isn’t worth anything like £50m in the first place…. -
Which is fine. But it's the price I'd want in order to listen.
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But Sancho has failed at ManU. Maybe he’s not quick, strong or smart enough for the premier league. They want to sell, we (presumably) done. All of that inflates Brennans value and reduces Sancho’s.
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Sancho is said to on the thick end of £350k a week, which is part of the reason Man Utd might accept a lower fee than they paid for him.
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Quite so. Transfer fee is no longer (since bosman) an adequate measure of cost. Other factors can be more significant (wages, remaining contract length, age, etc.) and massively change the component of cost that the fee constitutes.
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Let’s not forget Brennan wasn’t in the team at the back end of the season, as MGW and Danilo played behind Taiwo, and it worked. Maybe Brennan sees that continuing and his agent is sounding out interest?
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I did wonder if the bench in the back end of the season had him ticked off, but I can't imagine that that was anything other than an exercise in practicality on SSC's part. Still, if Steve does think that Brennan is going to struggle as part of a three going forward and be primarily a pacy weapon off the bench, then maybe it does make sense to cash in. Not for 30M though.
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If we'd spent last season not getting promoted from the championship ( or league one), we'd think £30 million was a right touch.
I can't say that I have any idea what players are worth these days. Apart from definitely not as much as they go for.
Brennan is our most saleable asset. For a club that needs to trade this season, and spent too much last season, he seems to me the most likely to contribute positively to the bottom line.
The 'potential premium' window is generally a quite narrow one. eg Ollie Burke. Brennan is a brilliant young player, but he's far from a complete one, and it's not impossible for us to play without him.
I'd rather keep him. But not at the cost of being relegated with a points deduction.
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I dont think we did spend too much last season (from an FFP perspective) we have one of the lowest cost squads so our amortisation must be well below average. I can't imagine there is any pressing need to sell for FFP.
I agree selling would give us more transfer budget but I don't think there is a pressing need.
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I'm coming from the perspective that we overspent, and on the basis that if we averaged that spend over three, or possibly even two, seasons we would be in FFP trouble.
... and from the perspective that the squad that we currently have, I do not believe would be good enough to avoid relegation next season.
So there's probably only a pressing need if we want to try to stay up again.
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My take would be that we aren't too far away. With some sales (not of major players) I can see us spending £80m to £90m, being inside FFP comfortably and having a lower mid table squad.
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We are allowed to lose 105M GBP over three years under FFP.
According to Transfermarket we spent 195.25M euros (166.7M GBP) buying players last season.
The estimated total of our TV revenue plus prize money last season is 137M GBP, plus matchday revenues and merchandising. I've no idea what those other revenues would amount to, but 30K tickets at 35 quid a pop x 19 games = about 20M so let's say that all the other stuff tops up another 10M to give us an income of about the same as our transfer spend.
This means that to be FFP compliant in 2023, all running costs including wages, stadium costs and everything else would have to have been no more than 35M GBP. Given we know that two of our players cost 10M in wages alone (Hendo and Lingard), I think there's very little chance we're anywhere near tracking to an FFP-compliant budget over three years.
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But that isn't how FFP works. Stadium costs, academy costs (I think) aren't included. Also transfer costs aren't included in the year you buy the player, they're spread over the contract - hence Chelsea's long contracts.
Most clubs make a profit in the first year, I'm not saying we have done that, but I don't think there will be any major pressure this year.
I can see us potentially having to make a big sale next season if we are going to be able to keep spending, but no pressure yet.
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Taylor, P. reckons the offer would need to in the region of £50m for Forest to talk. Which feels about right. But can we all just enjoy these two opening lines:
